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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."