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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement wins the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers rising together. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still