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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd